Why your US trip costs more right now (and how to spend less)

The loonie: about 71 US cents

On October 16, one US dollar cost C$1.4157, according to the US Federal Reserve's daily exchange-rate series. Put the other way, a loonie is worth about 70.6 US cents.

That gap is where most of a US trip's cost hides, because almost everything after the flight is priced in US dollars:

• A US$250 hotel night is about C$354 before taxes.
• A US$60 dinner for two is about C$85, before the tip.
• A US$150 theme park ticket is about C$212.

Then most Canadian credit cards add a foreign transaction fee of about 2.5% on every US purchase. On a trip where you spend US$2,000, that's roughly another C$70 for nothing.

Where the loonie goes next depends partly on interest rates. The Bank of Canada's next rate decision is on Wednesday, October 28. If you follow the markets side, SignalStreet's economic calendar tracks that decision alongside the US data releases that tend to move the dollar. We won't guess the outcome, and neither should your travel budget: plan with today's rate.

Oil above US$100, and what it does to your ticket

Oil prices jumped this year after the conflict involving Iran disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and they've been volatile since. By early October, Brent crude was back above US$101 a barrel amid renewed attacks on tankers. In SignalStreet's weekly market recap for the week to October 23, US crude (WTI) was at US$107.89, and Canada's inflation rate had ticked up to 3.1%.

For airlines, fuel is one of the biggest costs, roughly 25 to 30% of operating costs according to analysis reported by The Logic, so expensive oil shows up in your fare one way or another. This spring, Canadian airlines added fuel surcharges to some bookings, for example:

• Air Canada Vacations: C$50 on selected sun-destination packages.
• WestJet: C$60 on bookings made with a WestJet Rewards companion voucher.
• Porter: C$40 per flight on VIPorter points redemptions.

Fares rose too. This spring, fares from Canada to New York were up 34.2% on a year earlier, according to figures reported by The Logic in May. Airlines also trimmed capacity on some routes, and fewer seats usually means fewer cheap seats.

The road trip doesn't escape it

Driving south instead? Statistics Canada says gasoline prices were up 27.8% year over year in September, the main reason inflation rose to 3.1%. Fill up on the Canadian side if it's cheaper that day, but budget for higher prices at the pump in both countries.

What you can still control

Pick the day, not just the route. The difference between the cheapest and most expensive day in the same month is often bigger than anything the exchange rate does. Search Toronto to New York or Vancouver to Las Vegas on Viorvo and check the fare calendar before you pick dates.

Set a price alert on the route you want. When a fare drops, you'll hear about it before it's gone. Set up a deal alert.

Compare Buffalo, but do the maths. Flying from Buffalo can be cheaper for families heading to Florida or Las Vegas, but parking, tolls and the drive add up. Our Buffalo vs Toronto guide has a break-even calculator.

Pay in US dollars with a no-FX-fee card. When a US hotel or shop asks whether to charge you in Canadian dollars, say no: the conversion they offer is usually worse than your card's. And a card without the 2.5% foreign transaction fee saves you that on every purchase.

Check what's included. Surcharges and bag fees often appear late in the booking. Compare the final total, with bags, not the first price you see.

Look at trips priced in Canadian dollars. If the US numbers don't work, a trip within Canada avoids the exchange rate entirely, and package holidays sold in Canadian dollars at least lock in the price when you book.

What to watch before you book

Three things will shape what your trip costs this winter: the Bank of Canada decision on October 28, where oil goes as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz develops, and how airlines price their winter schedules. We track the fares; for the markets side, SignalStreet publishes a five-minute recap every Friday.

This guide is about travel costs, not investment advice. Prices and rates change daily; everything here is dated so you can see how fresh it is.